übertool: web applications for ecological risk assessment (beta version)
Cloud-based environmental models used by the USEPA for evaluating pesticide risks to ecosystems under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Species Act (ESA).
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Feller-Arley Markov Process Overview


Feller-Arley Markov process is also known as the birth-death process, which assumes:

  • no internal population structure, each individual can give birth and death
  • the birth rate and death rate are constant
  • As a Markov procees, the future population size is only related to its neighbor state. In the below figure, when a birth occurs, the process goes from state n to n + 1. When a death occurs, the process goes from state n to state n-1. The possibility of "moving" to another state is governed by the birth and death rates.